NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID 19) AND ITS IMPACT ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC WELLBEING OF NIGERIA-PERSPECTIVE OF THE RULE OF LAW DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION [ROLDF]

WHAT IS CORONAVIRUS?
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered Coronavirus. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are known to infect both humans and animals and also cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). It is considered to be particularly dangerous in older patients, or people who have existing health conditions. Some of the preventive measures includes: Safe distancing that is keeping at least 2m distance between persons, cleaning the hands frequently with an alcohol based hand rub/sanitizer or washing them with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, covering the nose and mouth with a flexed elbow or disposable tissue when sneezing or coughing.
The Rule of Law Development Foundation (ROLDF) is an interventionist civil society concentrating on Rule of Law issues that arise in Nigeria and worldwide. By way of press statements, seminars, webcasts, conferences etc. the Foundation draws attention to breaches of the Rule of Law and other constitutional infractions that occur or are commonplace in Nigeria, Africa and beyond. The Foundation is on record, since its inception, to have campaigned vigorously for the preservation of Rule of Law principles and values in the Nigerian society. Unfortunately, since independence, there has been the tendency of Nigerian leaders (albeit in varying degrees) to subvert the Rule of Law in the discharge of their constitutional functions and duties to administer peace, order and good government of the nation.
The synergy between the Foundation (as ROLDF) will henceforth be called and this discourse/report on the subject matter above is prompted by the visitation of the coronavirus pandemic to Nigeria, its potential for large scale human and economic ruin and the complete obliteration of the lifestyle of the Nigerian citizenry during the period of this visitation. A number of very sensitive governmental and governance issues will be or have been thrown up by the aftermath of the rampaging pandemic which if left unidentified and untreated may mark a downturn in the economic and political fortunes of Nigeria. The essence of this discourse is to provide as briefly as possible, a definitive understanding of the origins of COVID 19, its scientific nature, mode of transmission, its characteristics, its ability to metamorphose from a single index case to a pandemic of cross-continental proportions, the economic implications for national and sub-national entities, the varying solutions to the pandemic, the role of Government in providing the much needed panacea to the pandemic and many other relevant issues that may arise for consideration.

MODE OF TRANSMISSION
It can be transmitted from person to person primarily through droplets of saliva or discharge generated when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or speaks. It can also be contracted by touching a contaminated surface and then touching the eyes, nose or mouth before washing the hands. Though one can be infected by breathing in the virus if within 1 meter of an infected person, it is not an airborne disease, as the virus is unable to hang in the air and will quickly fall on floors and surfaces due to the heaviness of the droplets. Science and its various sub-departments i.e. virology etc have not and cannot reach a clear consensus on how the pandemic evolved or its specific mode of transmission. But they are agreed on one feature and it is that the novo corona virus will be around with us for quite a while at least until a treatment is found or a vaccine discovered.

WHERE DID IT ORIGINATE FROM?
The disease appears to have originated from a Wuhan (a city in Eastern China, with population of over 11 million) seafood market where wild animals, including marmots, birds, rabbits, bats and snakes, are traded illegally and consumed, in most cases, raw. It is known to jump from animals to humans, so it’s thought that the first people infected with the disease are primarily made up of stallholders from the seafood market and those who sell and consume wild animals (bats and rodents) as delicacies. Some early cases of Covid-19, however, appear to have inflicted people with no link to the Wuhan market at all, suggesting that the initial route of human infection may pre-date the market cases. The Wuhan market was shut down for inspection and cleaning on January 1 2020, but by then it appears that the horse has already bolted the stable. Covid-19 had already spread beyond the market. On January 21, the World Health Organisation (WHO) Western Pacific office said the disease was also being transmitted between humans and evidence of which became apparent after medical staff became infected with the virus.

HOW FAR HAS IT SPREAD?
What started as an epidemic mainly limited to China has become a truly global pandemic. At the peak of its outbreak in mid-February, the country saw more than 5,000 cases in a single day. As of April 20, Chinese health authorities had acknowledged over 83,817 cases and 4,636 deaths – most of them within the province of Hubei (a landlocked province in Central China, with over 58 million). Since March, the country has seen a remarkable slowdown. On March 17, China recorded just 39 new cases of the virus. Most of the country’s new cases at least for now are imported from elsewhere in the world, it appears that China has its outbreak under control.
But while things were slowing down in China, the outbreak started picking up in the rest of the world. There have now been over 3,540,000 confirmed cases and 247,300 deaths, according to the John Hopkins University Covid-19 dashboard, which collates information from national and international Health authorities. There are now confirmed cases in over 200 countries and territories. Outside of China, the US has seen the highest number of cases. The country which has been criticized for its slow rollout of testing and confused approach to the crises, is now the epicentre of the Covid-19 outbreak thereby becoming the first country to surpass China’s confirmed total by having over 1,180,000 established infections and 65,683 deaths as at May 3, 2020.
Italy initially saw the highest number of deaths in Europe, with over 23,660 deaths and 178,972 confirmed infections, mostly in the north of the country. The entire country is now on lockdown after the quarantine covering the north of the country was extended on March 9.
Spain is also in the grip of a significant outbreak. The country has over 200,000 confirmed infections and 20,453 deaths – the second-highest number within Europe. There, citizens are under lockdown, with the government shutting all schools, bars, restaurants and non-essential supermarkets down. People are only allowed to leave their homes to buy food or to go to work Germany has over 145,745 confirmed cases and 4,642 deaths, at rate lower than many other European countries. Social distancing rules will stay in place until May 4, but the country is starting to slowly relax its requirements some shops soon set to re-open their doors.
Austria, which has over 14.749 confirmed cases and 452 deaths was the first European country to partially lift its lockdown on April 14. As of April 18, the UK has reported 120,067 confirmed Covid-19 infections and 16,060 hospital deaths. In total, 372,967 people have been tested for the disease. On March 16, Prime Minister Boris Johnson led the first daily coronavirus press conference, saying that the government now advised all UK residents to avoid non-essential social contact and travel where possible. On March 20 this was extended to include a shutdown of all bars, pubs, cafes and restaurants in the UK. From the same day, all schools in England, Scotland and Wales were shut until further notice. The UK presently has over 185,000 confirmed cases and 28,000 deaths.
While the number of new cases continues to rise sharply, people are also recovering from the infection. Globally, over 1,137,000 people have recovered from Covid-19 - about 32% of all the people who had confirmed infections, although the number of coronavirus cases will be much higher. Africa (world’s second largest and second-most populous continent with a population of over 1.3 billion) reported its very first confirmed case in Egypt on February 14. As of May 3, has reported over 42,500 confirmed cases and 1,500 deaths and 14,000 recoveries from 53 out of 54 countries across the continent. The only virus-free country is Lesotho. Some of African countries have imposed a range of preventative and containment measures against the spread of the pandemic. The breakdown remains fluid as countries confirm cases as and when according to the latest data by the John Hopkins University and Africa Centre for Disease Control on Covid-19 in Africa. One the countries to have reported confirmed cases in Africa is Nigeria.

WHERE AND WHEN DID IT FIRST START IN NIGERIA?
The Federal Ministry of Health confirmed a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case in Lagos State, Nigeria on the February 27th, 2020. It was the first case to be reported in Nigeria since the beginning of the outbreak in China in January 2020. The case precipitated on February 25 by a 44-year old Italian Engineer who travelled from Milan (a European centre of the virus outbreak), Italy via Istanbul to Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos at 10pm on Turkish Airlines. After an overnight stay in a Lagos hotel, he proceeded to his place of employment, a cement factory in Ogun State. Federal and state authorities moved quickly to quarantine and also trace all those with whom he had contact with including his 156 fellow airline passengers. He was confirmed by the Virology Laboratory of the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, part of the Laboratory Network of the Laboratory Network of Nigeria Centre for Disease Control as testing positive of the dreaded Covid-19. The patient was later reported to be clinically stable with no serious symptoms and was managed at the Infectious Disease Hospital in Yaba, Lagos. On March 9, a second case of the virus was reported at Ewekoro, (cement industry city) Ogun State, a Nigerian citizen who was one the 40 persons who had contact with the index Italian patient.
The third case was confirmed on 16th of March (day 2 of week 3 since the first confirmed case in Nigeria) in Lagos and it was a Nigerian national who returned to Nigeria from the United Kingdom on the 13th of March after a brief visit. On March 18th 5 new cases were confirmed by the Federal Ministry of Health (FM of H) bringing total number of confirmed cases to 8 in Nigeria. Of the 5 new positive cases 3 arrived from the United States, while 2 were Nigerians who came in from the United Kingdom. A mother and child was 2 of the 3 from the US making the 6-week old baby the youngest COVID-19 patient while the 3rd was an American national who crossed the land border. 4 new cases were reported on 19th March, all 4 are from Lagos. 1 had a travel history to the UK; 1 to France, 3rd case was a contact to one of the previously confirmed cases; 4th had no history of travel. On 21st of March (end of week 3), 3 new cases were confirmed from Lagos making the total number of confirmed cases 25.
The total number of confirmed cases was 30 when 5 new cases were reported on 22nd March (week 4); 3 in Lagos, 1 each in Oyo and FCT making it their first confirmed case. Edo recorded its first case on 23rd March which was 1 out of 10 new cases reported on 23rd March. 26th and 28th of March recorded 14 and 16 respectively making them the days with the highest numbers in week 4 thereby making the confirmed cases in Nigeria 97 in 12 states (Lagos, FCT, Oyo, Ogun, Bauchi, Edo, Enugu, Osun, Benue, Ekiti, Kaduna, and Rivers). On 29th March which was day 1 of week 5, NCDC reported 14 new cases, 20 on 30th March, 8 on 31st March, 35 on 1st April, 10 in 2nd April, 26 on 3rd April, and 5 on 4th April making the total of 214 confirmed cases by the end of week 5 recorded from 14 states (Lagos, FCT, Oyo, Ogun, Bauchi, Edo, Enugu, Osun, Benue, Ekiti, Kaduna, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and Ondo) in Nigeria. By the end of week 6 (11th March), the total number of cases was 318 in 20 states infected in Nigeria with 6 newly infected states. The newly infected states are Kano, Anambra, Katsina, Kwara, Niger and Delta. The number of confirmed cases increased to 542 with no new state infected by the end of week 7 which was 18th April. With the total addition of 640 new cases in week 8, the number of confirmed cases in Nigeria doubled to 1182 i.e. the total number of confirmed cases was 1182 on 25th April. We are presently in week 10 and according to NCDC on 3rd May, the total number of confirmed cases is 2,558 with 35 states infected.

SPREAD RATIO IN TERMS OF INFECTED PERSONS?
The number of infected persons is presently 2,558 according to NCDC and has spread across 35 states in its 10th week with Lagos state which was were the first index case was confirmed having the highest number of infected persons.

WHAT IS THE NUMBER OF DISCHARGED PERSONS?
According to NCDC as at 3rd May, a total number of 400 persons have been discharged.

STATISTICS FOR CORONAVIRUS IN NIGERIA AS AT ( 3RD MAY, 2020)

STATES	CONFIRMED	DISCHARGED	DEATHS
LAGOS	1,107	247	30
KANO	342	7	6
FCT	278	40	3
GOMBE	96	-	-
BORNO	82	-	12
OGUN	80	10	2
KATSINA	46	6	7
EDO	52	10	3
OSUN	36	22	3
KADUNA	81	8	1
BAUCHI	71	6	-
SOKOTO	66	1	8
OYO	34	9	2
AKWA IBOM	16	10
KWARA	16	8	-
EKITI	11	2	1
ONDO	13	3	-
TARABA	8	-	-
DELTA	17	4	2
JIGAWA	7	-	1
RIVERS	14	2	2
ZAMFARA	12	-	1
ENUGU	8	2	-
ABIA	2	1	-
ADAMAWA	6	-	-
EBONYI	5	-	-
NIGER	3	1	-
ANAMBRA	1	1	-
BAYELSA	5	-	-
BENUE	1	-	-
IMO	2	-	-
KEBBI	12	-	-
NASARAWA	12	-	-
PLATEAU	3	-	-
YOBE	13	-	1
TOTAL	2,558	400	87

WHAT WAS THE GROWTH RATIO IN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE SPREAD?
The growth rate in the first week was 0 because there was no new confirmed case after the index case (Italian man) which was confirmed on February 27. Calculating mathematically: Growth rate = (present – past) ÷ past = (1−1) ÷ 1 =0 ÷1 = 0 According to Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) on March 2, a total of 15 suspected cases was identified across 4 states (Lagos, Ogun, FCT and Kano) out of which 1 person was confirmed positive (index case) with no death. Three new contacts were identified in Lagos and one in Ogun making a total of 21 and 40 contacts respectively. Laboratory testing capacity is said to have been expanded to 5 including the Nigeria institute of Medical Research (NIMR) Lagos. Overall, final reported destination for 103 passengers on board in the aircraft of the confirmed case, was within Lagos State while the rest (45) were outside Lagos. A cumulative total of 1,811 passengers of interest have been screened: Abuja (1,082); Port Harcourt (74) and Kano (665).

HOW DID THE ISSUE OF PALLIATIVE CARE COME UP?
Palliative care got its start as hospice care, often delivered by caregivers at religious institutions. From the very first days of medicine, caregivers have understood the primacy of reducing their patients’ suffering; the first aim has always been to make people feel better. Palliate comes from ‘pallium’ which is the Latin word for ‘cloak’. To palliate is to cloak, or cover up, the symptoms of an illness without curing it. This meaning grew into the idea of alleviating or reducing suffering.
In 1948, the first formal hospice was founded by Dame Cicely Saunders, a British physician to specifically care for patients with terminal illnesses. Her success in improving her patients’ quality of life led her to introduce the concept of hospice care to other physicians, who quickly recognized the value in respecting people’s wishes and needs at the end of life. Caregivers began to understand that these values could apply to patients without terminal illnesses as well.
In 1990, the World Health Organization (WHO) recognized palliative care as a distinct specialty dedicated to relieving suffering and improving quality of life for patients with life-limiting illnesses or serious injuries. WHO described the goals of palliative care as the prevention, assessment, and multidisciplinary treatment of physical, spiritual, and psychological problems. Palliative care was now an established entity, separate from hospice and sometimes administered along with curative treatments, but hospitals were rather slow to adopt the practice.
According Nnadi Daniel Chukwunyere in the chapter Palliative Care: The Nigerian Perspective (2019), palliative care is still new to the country owing to the fact that it is not included as an area of specialization for health professionals across the country. It is now currently offered as an undergraduate course at the College of Medicine, University of Ibadan and postgraduate diploma in a privately owned University in Ilorin, Kwara state. Despite the prescriptions of WHO in 2002 and its re-emphasis at the 2004 WHO general assembly that palliative care should be integrated into all nations’ health care system, several African countries including Nigeria are yet to approve it as a policy. This situation had contributed significantly to the slow level of palliative care development in Nigeria, as the palliative care practitioners have no access to the nation health budget. Some palliative care-challenges in Nigeria include:
1. Poor awareness, knowledge and skills.
2. Inability to discuss cancer diagnosis and management with patients.
3. Lack of trained professionals.
4. Lack of resources.
5. Problems associated with availability of medications including oral opioids.
6. Lack of government policy/priority

WHERE WAS THE TERM ‘POOREST OF THE POOR’ DEVELOPED FROM?
No one knows the specific place where the term originated from. ‘Poorest of the poor’ or the ‘bottom billion’ according to Paul Collier in his book “the bottom billion: Why the Poorest Countries are failing and What Can Be Done About it” (2007), consists of womankind, female new-born and old people. This is because within a poor family, such individuals suffer more than the others. As a matter of fact, they are systematically denied equal access to the resources available to the family. Others can be scheduled tribes, urban casual laborers, agricultural rural laborers, victims of natural calamities and violence etc. With the widespread extreme poverty and dreadful living conditions, most of the underdeveloped countries are at on the baseline of the global economy and have little or no infrastructure, reliable health care and other social services.
The ‘poorest of the poor’ is a belittling term, especially when employed by Government officials who ought to be the implementers of Government policy and who over the years ought to have provided a lifeline or policy for the alleviation of the plight of the underprivileged in our society. But, sadly, our society does not recognise planning for the underprivileged and economically displaced unless and until an emergency or a desperate life and death situation is at hand. What has therefore become apparent from the consequences of the corona pandemic is that a substantial number of Nigerians are on the brink of starvation and possible extinction, with no visible plans for bringing them out of the doldrums of this rampaging pandemic

WHAT ARE THE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CORONA VIRUS?
For most developing economies, the odd of sliding into economic depression are gradually expected as the global coronavirus outbreak puts severe pressure on the economy. For Nigeria, the country is still sluggishly grappling with recovery from 2016 economic recession which was a fall out of global oil price crash and insufficient foreign exchange earnings to meet imports. In the spirit of economic recovery and growth sustainability, the Nigerian Federal Budget for the 2020 fiscal year was prepared with significant revenue expectations but with contestable realizations.
The emergence of COVID-19 and its increasing incidence in Nigeria has called for drastic review and changes in earlier revenue expectations and fiscal projections. Compared to events that led to recession in 2016, the current state of the global economy poses more difficulties ahead as the oil price is currently below $11.5 with projections that it will dip further going by the price war among key players in the industry. As at today June Oil Contracts in the International Market is selling for $19 (Nineteen) US Dollars, a far cry from the $47 USD benchmark set for budgetary purposes in the Appropriation Act for the fiscal year of 2020. Unfortunately, the nation has grossly underachieved in setting aside sufficient buffers for rainy days such as it faces in the coming days. This is because it has underestimated the advantages of the Sovereign Wealth Fund and the Excess Crude Oil Accounts, which today would have cushioned the economy from the free fall it is about to engage in. The truth is that no economist or soothsayer can predict the extent of economic and social dislocation the foregoing scenario will bring upon Nigeria. In addressing these daunting economic challenges, the current considerations to revise the budget downward is inevitable and probably sensible. However, certain considerations that are expected in the review must not be left out. In our view, except the 2nd Niger-Delta Bridge Project, Health infrastructure and other capital expenditure linked to or arising from the Covid-19 pandemic, Road repairs, Existing Railway commitments, Maintenance of existing infrastructure i.e. National monuments, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Institutions and similar projects, Governments both Federal and States must abandon the desire to engage in any budgeted capital project for the year 2020 because the horse has already bolted the stable. The downside should Government insist on the opposite is that they will have to borrow almost at usurious rates from International Financing Organisations to fund an already flat-out or expired budget. That will be like adding salt to an already septic flesh injury. The priorities of Government and to be specific FGN should now be sustaining the vast population of Nigeria through the unknown period of this Pandemic.
The assumptions and benchmarks (post-pandemic) must be based on realizable thresholds, which will principally be hinged on internal revenue receipts and non-oil revenue components. Furthermore, cutting expenditures must be done such that the already excluded group and vulnerable are not left to bear the brunt of the economic contraction. The economic and growth recovery program which has the aim of increasing social inclusion by creating jobs and providing support for the poorest and most vulnerable members of society through investments in social programs and providing social amenities will no doubt suffers some setbacks. Besides, the downward review of the budget and contractions in public spending could be devastating on poverty and unemployment. The last unemployment report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ranks Nigeria 21st among 181 countries with an unemployment rate of about 23.1%. The country has also been rated as the poverty capital of the world with an estimated 87 million people living on less than $2 a day threshold.
The decision to cut the retail price of gasoline under a price modulation arrangement appears pre-mature and not reflective of the real or appropriate solution, which is the total removal of fuel subsidy so that the landing cost of petroleum products can be decided by market forces. But Government does not intend to proceed in that direction and will only proceed as far as carrying out cuts to the pump price of Petrol to be determined by prevailing price of crude oil. The cut is expected to curb rising inflation, especially food price inflation which will mainly benefit the poor. In the event that the global economy becomes healthier and crude oil prices increases, the government might return to the under-recovery of the oil price shortfall by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). A policy that annually costs the government huge revenue and recurring losses to the NNPC.
Since the re-introduction of democratic rule in 1979, all governments, whether military or civil, have made the diversification of the Nigerian economy from a one commodity their objective and the future mainstay of the nation. They however due to the misapplication of oil proceeds and the preference for politics rather than economics failed to diversify the economy. It is easy to diversify any economy talk less of the Nigerian economy.
Our hinderance is the attitude of our leaders towards governance and government. To them, it is about their ego and their quest for dominance over all other persons. In this quest, they jettison fairness, equity and propriety. They see themselves superior to or over and above the Constitution, which they swore to obey and uphold. This attitude, including massive corruption and the unrighteous bleeding of our economy has led us to the present ruin.

WHAT IS THE POSSIBLE SOLUTION ESPECIALLY TO DISASTER MANAGEMENT?
What is really needed are fiscal measures to save companies and banks from bankruptcy, so that they can recover quickly once the pandemic is over. Policy makers should be considering various forms of tax relief and public guarantees to help firms borrow if necessary. But the most promising option is a short-time work allowance. This approach, which has been tried and tested in Germany, compensates the underemployment of the workforce through the same channels that are already used for unemployment insurance. Better yet, it hardly cost anything, because it prevents the losses that would follow from increased real unemployment. All countries should be replicating this part of Germany’s policy to prevent job losses.
The reason for Nigeria’s less than below average score in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic is not in the reaction and strategy of the present leadership but in the parlous state of the existing health infrastructure. For a densely populous nation like Nigeria the sum of N500 (Five Billion) Naira spent as a yearly average for the health sector is grossly insufficient. It was an accident waiting to happen, which came to pass with the unannounced appearance of the Covic-19. A clear example is the total lack of bed spaces for the number of cases that erupted in the first 6 weeks. The nation now had to resort to fire brigade measure of converting stadia, schools, hotels, private residences etc into makeshift hospitals and isolation centres. The drawback of this approach and attitude is that once the emergency of the pandemic blows away, these makeshift structures will be dismantled and the assets which are mostly donations from selfless minded groups and personalities auctioned for personal benefit.
Now to address the methodology required in the search for solution to this pandemic; (i) all governments need to follow China in taking direct action against Covid-19. Nobody on the frontline should be constrained by a lack of funds. Hospital intensive-care units must be expanded; temporary hospitals must be built; and respirators, protective gear and masks must be mass-produced and made available to all who need them. Beyond that, public health authorities must be given the resources and funds they need to disinfect factories and other public spaces. Hygiene is the order of the day. Large-scale testing of the population is particularly important. The identification of each case can save multiple lives. Surrendering to the pandemic simply is not an option.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele said despite the damage the COVID-19 pandemic is causing nations around the world, it presents an opportunity to birth “a new Nigeria.” He also described the disruptions caused by the pandemic as an opportunity to re-echo “a persistent message the CBN has been sending for a long time.”
The need for Nigerians to start looking inwards as a nation to guarantee food security, high quality and affordable healthcare and cutting-edge education for citizens is emphasized in the 27-page speech (paper) presented by Mr Godwin Emefiele, Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, published by THISDAY on the April 14, 2020. According to him, for a country of over 200 million people, projected to be almost 450 million in a few decades, “we can no longer ignore repeated warnings about the dangers that lie ahead if we produce locally because the security and well-being of our nation is contingent on building a well-diversified and inclusive economy.”
Emefiele noted that when he assumed office in June 2014, importation of fish, rice, wheat, and sugar alone consumed N1.3 trillion worth of foreign exchange but the apex bank under his leadership took steps to reduce the amount. He further said “CBN, in line with the vision of President Muhammadu Buhari has indeed created several lending programs and provided hundreds of billions to smallholder farmers and industrial processors in several key agricultural produce”.
He explained that this philosophy “These policies are aimed at positioning Nigeria to become a self-sufficient food producer, creating millions of jobs, supplying keys markets across the country and dampening the effects of exchange rate movements on local prices,” has been the consistent theme of the CBN’s policies over the last couple of years, just foreign exchange from some items at its window.
He said: “Many times, the bank has been accused of promoting protectionist policies. My answer has always been that leaders are first and foremost accountable to their own citizens. And if the vagaries of international trade threaten their well-being, leaders have to react by compelling some change patterns of trade to the greater good of their citizens. That is why in response to COVID-19, we are strengthening the Nigerian economy by providing a combined stimulus package of about N3.5 trillion in targeted measures to households, businesses, manufacturers and healthcare providers.”
He said the measures were deliberately designed to both support the federal government’s immediate fight against COVID-19 and also build a more resilient, more self-reliant Nigerian economy. He further stated that “We do not know what the world will look like after this pandemic. Countries may continue to look inwards, and globalization, as we know it today may be dead for a generation.”
He therefore stressed the need for Nigerians to support the federal government in its quest to deliver high-quality infrastructure, support large-scale production of staple and cash crops in the country and develop the educational sector, among others and also that the apex bank had designed policy response timeline to guide the management of the crisis and help in rebooting the economy.
In addition, he said with the support of the federal government, CBN would embark on a project to get banks and private equity firms to finance home-grown and sustainable healthcare services that would help reverse medical tourism. CBN would also promote the establishment of a N15 trillion Infra Co Plc, which he said would be wholly focused on Nigeria and managed by an independent infrastructures fund manager. “This fund will be utilized to support the federal government in building the transport infrastructure required to move agriculture products to processors, raw materials to factories and finished goods to markets, as envisaged by the CBN ‘Going for Growth’ roundtable in March 2020.”
He said the bank would also focus on four sectors to stimulate job creation and listed them to include light manufacturing, affordable housing, renewable energy, and cutting-edge research. “In manufacturing, for example, it is pertinent to note that Nigeria’s gross fixed capital information is currently estimated at N24.55 trillion, made up of residential and non-residential properties, manufacturing and equipment, transport equipment, land improvement, research and development and breeding stocks,”

CONCLUSION
Before concluding this discourse, it bears to recall the original objective of engaging in this write-up in the first place, which is twofold; first, to have on record this Foundation’s perspective on the origins, scope and reaction of all stakeholders to the surge of the Pandemic known and referred to as Covid-19 and (ii) to lay the foundation or pedestal for a frequent intervention by way of periodic suggestions of solutions to the socio-economic and politico-cultural dimensions and implication (fallout) of the said pandemic.
TESTING
Now, this pandemic entered Nigeria through the instrumentality of a solitary Italian on or about the 27th of February 2020. Today, the number of officially designated infected persons stands roughly about 2300. Nigeria’s population, subject to accurate census figures is about 150 million persons. However official census projection puts the population at about 200 million. The rate of infection from the index case to date considering all the available parameter, appears to be unrealistic given that Nigeria in the face of its weak protectionist systems is grossly under-estimating or under-reporting its population that has tested positive for the coronavirus. The former certainly must be the case because from the available indices Nigeria and its lead agency, the NCDC (Ministry of Health) does not possess sufficient testing facility for the pandemic.
The statistics at our disposal show that not more that 12, 000 tests have been carried out since the index case was reported. This position is corroborated by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), which attributes the low figures cited by Nigeria on COVID-19, to the ridiculously low levels of testing. It is embarrassing that Nigeria with a population of over 200 million has conducted just under 16,000 tests as of May 1, 2020. Botswana, with population around 1% that of Nigeria, has conducted over 7000 tests and South Africa, a quarter of Nigeria’s population, has conducted 197,000 tests as of May 1; but both are notable exceptions because they recorded their first case March 30 and January 22, respectively. Nigeria as stated above claims that as at May 2nd, to have recorded 2,388 infected cases.
The spread had initially been concentrated in Abuja, Lagos and Ogun state, the latter effectively a suburb of Lagos. Those three areas have been under lockdown since March 30, with an announcement on May 4. Kano state has since displaced Gombe, Ogun and Abuja to have the second-highest number of cases in Nigeria. The situation in Kano provides an example of some of the challenges that might be faced elsewhere in Nigeria and the world. Kano, the country’s second-largest city, registered its first case on April 11.
Since then, grave diggers had reported what appeared to be an abnormally high number of deaths, which, after investigation, were linked to variety of pre-existing conditions. With coronavirus as the catalyst. President Buhari nevertheless ordered that the city be locked down for an additional two weeks. Whether or not those people are officially acknowledged to have died of COVID-19, the pandemic may still have led to their death. The health care system in Kano should be revamped to deal with the coronavirus at the expense of other essential medical services, leaving some without health care. Also, the BBC reports that “no official death records are kept,” making it difficult to pronounce with certainty as to the cause of death.
The foregoing clearly brings to the fore, the urgent need for Nigeria to enhance her testing capabilities. Failure to test comprehensively and expeditiously will only leave us in a fool’s paradise, while government’s budding efforts will be meaningless. If the problem is in the importation of testing kits, then it is indeed Government alone that can solve the problem. But without widespread testing, there cannot be a discernible solution to the pandemic in Nigeria.
THE LOCKDOWN INITIATIVE
Various Nigerians leaders have been largely supportive of the lockdowns, at least initially. Both the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and the Nigerian Supreme Council of Islamic Affairs (NSCIA) have supported the government lockdown and have worked with some local and state governments to disseminate accurate information and encourage compliance. The NSCIA, in fact, ordered closure of their Abuja mosques a full week before the government-imposed lockdown. Many state governors imposed their own lockdown despite no requirement from the federal government, and on April 22, all unanimously agreed to ban interstate travel for two weeks. That states and Nigerian leaders at the highest level are working together is a good sign.
But the mass lockdowns weigh most heavily on the poor, who are often part of the informal economy and thus dependent on face-to-face contact for daily subsistence. For many of them, a day without work means a day without food. Hence the resistance in Lagos that has resulted in harsh responses employed by the security services. At one point, security forces enforcing lockdown orders across Nigeria had killed more people that the coronavirus. President Buhari has repeatedly acknowledged that the poor are most affected, and it is part of the impetus to ease lockdown restrictions. A patchwork of volunteer welfare programs and private sector-led initiatives are trying to make up for an insufficient government response. In rural Bayelsa state, there are credible anecdotes about chaotic and insufficient government relief measures, such as distribution of food to the poor.
Sentiments are hard to capture, but in urban Nigeria, there are anecdotes about popular satisfaction that most of the deaths from the disease have so far been from the elites who contracted the disease while abroad. More anecdotes tell of popular rage of elites, who many hold responsible for introducing the disease from their travel abroad. There is also popular satisfaction that the elites are now dependent on the same inadequate medical services as the rest of the population.
WHY DID PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI EASE THE LOCKDOWN?
President Muhammadu Buhari on Monday 27th April 2020 announced the gradual phasing out of the country’s lockdown in three states (Ogun, Lagos and FCT) from 4th May 2020. This is because according to him, the Federal and State Governments have jointly and collaboratively worked hard on how to balance the need to protect health while also preserving livelihoods, leveraging global best practices while keeping in mind our peculiar circumstances. They assessed how our factories, markets, traders and transporters can continue to function while at the same time adhering to NCDC guidelines on hygiene and social distancing. They assessed how children can continue to learn without compromising their health. They reviewed how farmers can safely plant and harvest in this rainy season to ensure our food security is not compromised and also discussed how to safely transport food items from rural production areas to industrial processing zones and ultimately, to the key consumption centres. Their goal was to develop implementable policies that will ensure our economy continues to function while still maintaining our aggressive response to the COVID-19 pandemic of which other leaders around the world are facing the same difficult decisions.
However, according to him, this will be followed strictly with aggressive reinforcement of testing and contact tracing measures while allowing the restoration of some economic and business activities in certain sectors.
He furthermore introduced some new nationwide measures; overnight curfew from 8pm to 6am, ban on non-essential inter-state passenger travel until further notice, partial and controlled interstate movement of goods and services will be allowed for the movement of goods and services from producers to consumers and lastly, mandatory use of face masks or coverings in public in addition to maintaining physical distancing and personal hygiene, restrictions on social and religious gatherings shall remain in place.
IS THIS A GOOD SOLUTION
From the nature of the pandemic and borrowing a leaf from jurisdictions round the world that lifted lockdown prematurely, it is predicted that there is a possibility of a spike in new cases leading to a new lockdown. The consensus is that the lockdown has been prematurely unlatched, and the country may be worse for the wear. The Foundation will report on the developments as time goes on.
ISOLATION CENTRES, INTENSIVE CARE UNITS AND OTHER CLINICAL MEASURES TO ERASE THE PANDEMIC
RESPONSE WITH RESPECT TO ISOLATION CENTRES
Nigeria presently has 15 laboratories and according to the minister of health, they have a total test capacity of 2500. Punch news released an article on the Minister of Health Dr Osagie Ehanire, appealing to Nigerians to donate their buildings as isolation centres in a press briefing of the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 in Abuja on Thursday, April 30. He said as the NCDC aimed to test 2 million people in the next 3 months more buildings would be needed as isolation centres.
A controversial Bill sponsored by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr. Femi Gbajabiamila, and two of his colleagues, seeking to empower the Federal Government to convert any property in the country, including private properties, to isolation centres has continued to attract criticisms. Apart from members of the house who protested that they were not served copies while it was read at plenary on Tuesday April 28, before it hurriedly passed first and second readings on the same day, lawyers and many other Nigerians have described the Bill as draconian and suspicious.
The minister stated “I have appealed to citizens to make their property available temporarily for this purpose. I am sure that after that, there are many property owners who will come up and donate to state governments for a period of time to be used for this function. We are not out of space now, but we are making the appeal ahead of time so that we have these facilities ready.”
Personally, this does not make any sense because before now, this same Minister kept saying Nigeria was more than ready and capable to handle the pandemic. Besides, the European Union (EU) on April 14 announced a EUR 50 million (N21 billion) contribution towards the implementation of a coordinated response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. Other contributions include $30 million donated by NNPC (according to Emele Onu through Bloomberg), 5 Billion Naira to provide beds for isolation centres, intensive care unit facilities and direct access to medical advice to up to 450,000 citizens every day. 1 billion Naira each contributed by Femi Otedola, Abdulsamad Rabiu, Herbert Wigwe, Segun Agbaje and Aliko Dangote, (according to CNN) to mention a few. Question now is what exactly have they done with this funds because Nigeria still cannot boast of one Standard isolation centre, Instead, we have them using NYSC camps and Stadiums as isolation centres. The government still has not been able to give proper palliatives to the poorest of the poor.
We are not saying that it is wrong for citizens to donate their properties to aid Government in its fight to curb the virus, but they should have at least done something to show their citizens that they utilized the earlier funds donated. This calls to question the principle of accountability of public funds which ought to have been made or carried out in a transparent manner, but which unfortunately is not the case. There is also the issue of what will happen to the proposed requisitioned buildings after they are been used. Will the government take responsibility of fumigating those properties properly and restoring them to the state they were in before they were acquired? We doubt not as there is no statutory backing for this procedure in the first place.
Signed
JOSEPH BODUNRIN DAUDU SAN
3RD MAY 2020
COORDINATOR/FOUNDER
RULE OF LAW DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION (ROLDF)
ABUJA

REFERENCES
University of Pittsburgh Medical Centre (UPMC) Palliative and supportive institute www.UPMC.com
Palliative care: The Nigerian Perspective By Nnadi Daniel Chukwunyere (September 4th 2019) www.intechopen.com/books/palliative-care/palliative-care-the-nigerian-perspective, www.intechopen.com
Nigeria Control of Disease Centre (NCDC) www.ncdc.gov.ng
www.Africanews.com
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www.wired.Co.uk
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(@readfern) www.readfern.com
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W.H.O www.emro.who.int
W.H.O bulletin http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.255695, www.who.int
The Bottom Billion by Paul Collier (15 April, 2007) www.wikipedia.org
www.Vendantu.com
www.Cseafrica.org
Thisday Newspaper: Press Release by CBN Governor (30 March, 2020) www.thisdaylive.com, www.cbn.gov.ng
Aljazeera news www.Aljazeera.com
CBNC Africa "www.CNBC.Africa, www.Cnbafrica.com
CNN News www.cnn.com
www.Bloomberg.com
official Europe Union (EU) Website www.eas.europa.eu
Punch News www.punchng.com